Another Week of Fed Speak

 Almost without fail, every time the Federal Reserve Chairman speaks, the stock market declines. This week Chairman Powell reiterated that they will continue to raise rates for as long as necessary. I wonder why we need the Fed at all. A case in point. If a consumer has been putting items on their credit card at 10%, then their rate climbs to 15%, the odds are that they will limit their spending. Where does the Fed fit into this? They do not. That is the rub.

We do not need the Fed raising rates, because consumers will restrain their spending on their own when rates go up. Look at housing and mortgages. When rates go up, it does not affect cash buyers. It only affects people who need a mortgage to buy a house. At a 4% mortgage, they could perhaps have afforded a 2,500 square foot home. However, at an 8% mortgage, they may only qualify for a 1,800 square foot home. Unless they are in a forced move situation like a job transfer, then odds are they will wait until interest rates decline to buy more house for the money. Again, where is the Fed in this scenario? We do not need the Fed to tell us when to buy a mortgage. We can make that decision all on our own.

Therefore, the Fed raising rates only throws gasoline on the fire. The Fed's actions will do a few things, none of which are good for the average person. They will force people to pay higher interest rates. They will force large corporations to lay people off. They will force banks to quit loaning money or make it very restrictive to qualify for loans. The Fed does all this in order to get interest rates to decline. Yes, they raise rates for an extended period in order to get interest rates to decline. In other words, they inflict severe financial pain on most Americans. It is stupid. (My favorite word.)

Later this month, it is now expected that the Fed will raise interest rates another 0.50%. They do not need to do this. People will stop spending on their own. Rates are already high enough to curb credit card spending and mortgages. When the Fed raises rates, they put banks at financial risk, because people with 24.99% credit card rates are going to say, "To hell with it. I ain't paying this no more." The banks who issue credit cards will have to go after these people and their recovery prospects are diminished. There is only so much money banks will spend chasing down bad credit card debt. Most banks will write it off, then sell it to bill collectors who will hound the hell out of people trying to collect.

In my opinion, we do not need the Fed if this is their planned outcomes. Ron Paul was right.

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Famous Last Words on Interest Rates

I do not know about you, but this fear of inflation is beginning to get out of hand. Ever since President Carter's unfortunate tenure as our President, we have had this huge fear of another bout of similar inflation. Personally and professionally speaking, I believe it is all a bunch of hooey. This could be my famous last words on the subject, but I am willing to stick my neck out.

What went wrong back then?

• Back when President Carter was in office, we had a horrible position of energy dependence. We needed a lot more oil than we had and we were subject to the whims of other countries.
• Insurance companies were allowed to purchase high yield bonds for their normally staid investment portfolios.
• Banks were just abject fools back then offering double digit CD's.
• Insurance companies were offering fixed annuities to compete with those bank double digit CD's by offering double digit fixed annuities.
• Bank regulators could not keep up with the fast moving changes.
• Insurance regulators were woefully inept.
  
• The biggest factor was that the Federal Reserve Bank thought that the best way to solve the runaway inflation problem was to raise interest rates.

What did we learn from all this?

• Never again be dependent on other countries for our oil supply.
• Limit the amount of high yield bonds that insurance companies can purchase.
• When you are a bank, you offer paltry CD rates and people will still buy them.
• When you are an insurance company, you offer paltry fixed annuity rates and people will still buy them.
• Bank regulation is much improved, especially since the 2008 fiasco.
  
• Insurance regulation is better, but there are still problems with product approvals. They are too complicated for the average consumer to understand, in my opinion.
  
• The Federal Reserve Bank is still a problem. Raising interest rates like they did fueled the problem.
  

We fixed most of those problems, but the Federal Reserve Board of Governors still believe that President Carter days are just around the corner, if we do not watch out. Never mind the fact that according to the Federal Reserve's own numbers, they have over seven trillion on their balance sheet at Federal Reserve banks across the United States. This is not a paltry sum by any means.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm 

I for one do not believe that we will have to worry about inflation on the par of President Carter's tenure in office. The main reason for this is, if the Federal Reserve raises rates like they did back then, it would doom our economy and nation. It would cause the amount of U.S. Debt to increase exponentially with a rise in interest rates that would cause an enormous hit to our balance sheet, not to mention the government debt. In effect, they would be cutting their own throat. It is much easier for the Federal Reserve to keep buying fixed income investments (bonds and mortgages,) put them on their balance sheet, then let them mature, or pick and choose profitable times to sell. These actions will guarantee rates will be low for the foreseeable future. Inflation is not a problem and I do not believe that we should ever worry about it. So, when you see the pundits on television talking about inflation getting out of hand, know that they are full of bull. It is not going to get out of hand. I'll stick my neck out and say we will never see another round of inflation like we saw when President Carter was in office.

Economic Inflation Worries

Economic inflation worries are overblown. They have always been overblown ever since Jimmy Carter was President. Back then, banks were hawking CD's at unsustainable rates of 15% and more. Insurance companies were promising annuity rates just as high. Mortgage rates were also similarly high. Auto loans were equally ridiculous. There was an oil embargo that caused the price of oil to sky rocket and the supply to shrink. The people or economists who lived through this all blame "inflation" as the culprit.

It was not inflation. It was simply idiots in charge of everything. What kind of idiot was in charge of the bank making 30 year mortgages at 15% interest and expecting people to be able to pay that rate over the life of the loan? Or, how about a 15% auto loan? Really? I would have loved to be in the Board of Directors meeting listening to one of these idiots explaining why we needed to offer 30 year mortgages at 15% interest. I would have fired them on the spot for being so stupid.

What kind of idiot was in charge of the bank who paid CD's at the rate of 15% for a one year CD?  What kind of idiot was in charge of the insurance companies who promised annuity rates of 15% for 5 years no less? You read that right. For 5 years! They were doing it back then, believe it or not.

Paul Volcker, the Federal Reserve chairman was heralded as the savior who saved America from the evil culprit of "inflation." What a joke. He didn't save anything. The markets adjusted to the stupidity of the people running the banks and insurance companies. These bank executives and their Board of Directors finally got a clue that they could not pay 15% CD rates, loan money profitably on a 30 year mortgage at 15%, or a car loan for that matter. Paul Volcker did not have anything to do with it. Although, economists everywhere give him the credit for saving America from the ravages of "inflation." The market adjusted. It is called capitalism at work.

"Inflation" was not the problem. Stupidity was the problem. Ever since this period in our economy happened, we have been stuck with these Federal Reserve policy makers who are so scared of "inflation" that they think a 2% cap on "inflation" is all that we can handle. TWO-PERCENT! Are you kidding me? What is wrong with these people? They are so scared that we will see a repeat of the Jimmy Carter days of "inflation" that they have to stop it from happening at all costs! Anytime that the economy starts to do well, these Federal Reserve governors step in and put the brakes on. All in the name of saving the economy from the ravages of "inflation." They did it last December and the stock market immediately tanked as a result. Their justification was they were trying to get back to "neutral". Neutral? Neutral? Now, they are inserting a new Federal Reserve policy. Neutrality. What the hell is neutrality? It is some arbitrary number that they want to achieve that gives them some warm and fuzzy feeling. This is so freaking stupid it is simply unbelievable. Stupid is my favorite word, by the way. Read my latest version of Meet Wally Street. The Reason You're Stupid. 2nd Edition. https://www.amazon.com/Meet-Wally-Street-Reason-Stupid/dp/1720401543

Sadly, there is no common sense in the Federal Reserve's way of thinking. They are way over-thinking it. Take a moment and spend a few minutes looking at this page and you should come to the same conclusion that I did. The Federal Reserve has done an awful job of raising and lowering interest rates over time. https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135

Who bears the brunt of these poor decisions? The middle class. The people with a 401(k) who are trying to save for retirement. Just when the market gets going in the right direction, these Federal Reserve Governors, slam the brakes on the economy by raising interest rates at the most inopportune time, like December 2017. This kills the growth in the average middle class 401(k) account. Why on earth would the Federal Reserve Governors have a policy that stymies growth? Their answer is because they are worried about the "inflation" that they experienced personally when Jimmy Carter was President. They have never really evaluated this period in time. Like I said above. Stupidity was the problem, not "inflation."

Does anyone have any good old fashion common sense any more? I would make the case that "inflation" is a good thing and the market will correct on its own without intervention from these brilliant Federal Reserve Governors. Even in the most notorious inflationary period in recent memory, the Jimmy Carter Presidency, the markets corrected. It is called capitalism at work.

Alas, what can a peon like me do about it? All I can do is make my point and hope to change some ingrained (stupid) ways of thinking.

Failed Thinking of The Federal Reserve

Investing is really about looking into the future and trying to determine the direction of the markets in the short and long term. The Federal Reserve does this along with individual investors. There are a couple of reasons as to why things have changed as far as the global markets are concerned. One reason is that the Federal Reserve is no longer buying bonds on the open market which was commonly considered stimulus to the U.S. economy. Instead, the Federal Reserve has quit buying bonds on the open market and let the bonds that they bought previously just mature in a normal and orderly schedule. This action by the Fed causes significantly less demand for bonds and with less demand comes higher interest rates. They have over four trillion to unwind from their balance sheet. That is close to 20% of the U.S. debt.

The second reason why things have changed is because the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates. The failed thinking of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is that "this is the way it has always been done." They justify raising rates to keep a lid on inflation, because this is the way it has always been done. In the Fed's mind, inflation is a bigger risk than the U.S. debt.

When you add these two reasons together, then you kind of have a double whammy on the economy that will stifle growth.

As I look back in my lifetime, I can remember Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and now Jerome Powell. Did any of these people do their jobs in an exceptional manner? In my opinion, no. It is a fallacy to believe that the Federal Reserve Chairman or Chairwoman can actually control the United States economy like the CEO of a business. They all made the same mistakes. They continued the failed policies of their predecessors with a "this is the way it has always been done" mentality.

My question would be this. If we owe close to 22 trillion in debt and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates on that debt, then wouldn't that increase the total debt at a faster clip? The answer of course is yes.

Let's take the reverse of this thinking. What if we let the economy grow at 4% for an extended period of time? In reality, it will never grow at 4% for an extended period of time, because eventually consumers will get tapped out and the economy will slow down. However, let's assume we let the economy grow at 4% for an extended period of time. If the economy is growing, then that is better than if it is not growing. You don't have to be too smart to figure that out. A growing economy is good. A shrinking economy (recession) is bad.

If consumers' incomes are rising, then they will spend more and pay more in taxes. If consumers are spending more, then corporations are making profits. If corporations are making profits, then they are paying more in taxes. If they are paying more in taxes, then the deficit will come down. Do we want the deficit to come down? Apparently, no one at the Federal Reserve cares about the deficit coming down.

Look it is not that complicated. The Federal Reserve's convoluted way of thinking is that inflation is a killer and because of Jimmy Carter days, we have to get a handle on it and keep it in check. Otherwise, these Fed Governors think we will see a repeat of 18% interest rates. This is so idiotic it is not even funny. We are never going to see 18% interest rates again. That was an anomaly.

The Fed believes it is better to kill economic growth, because we cannot have 18% interest rates again. This is such a stupid way of thinking! The Fed would rather increase interest rates and thus increase our deficit.

If the economy were allowed to grow, it would reduce the deficit and burn itself back down. By that I mean, if you got a raise and bought a new house, then bought new furniture and a new car, then you are tapped out. Six months from now, you are not going to move to a new bigger house, buy more new furniture and trade in your six month old car for a new more expensive one. The Fed thinking is that yes you will do all that and they want to stop you by raising interest rates. This is stupid thinking. The economy will slow down on its own, because people will slow their spending at some point. Specifically, after they have purchased their new house, their new furniture and their new car. Mortgage rates will have to come down to attract buyers. Furniture companies will have to offer deals to get you to buy new furniture and appliances. Car dealers will have to offer incentives like lower interest rates to get you to trade in that car you bought six months ago.

Don't you see? We are never going to see 18% interest rates again. Consumers will stop it before it ever happens. Economic growth is a good thing and it will make things better for all of us. Too bad the Federal Reserve is stuck with the failed thinking of "that's the way it has always been done."

The Banks Are In Bed With The Obama Administration

Normally, I try not to delve into political issues, but this latest injustice is too much to take. Just the other day, businesses across America won a reprieve from the high swipe fees charged by the Banks and Credit Card firms. The swipe fee was $0.44 per transaction. This may not seem like much, but it really hurts small business people who allow their customers to use their debit cards for small transactions.

For example, a retail customer buying only a cup of coffee would take a big bite out of the retail business owner's profit potential. Let us assume the cup of coffee costs $1.99. The retail business owner would have to pay $0.44 cents out of that $1.99 to the Banks and Credit Card firms. This is a 22% fee to the retail business owner for allowing his customer to use the debit card. This is why you have seen some businesses institute a minimum amount of purchase before they will let their customers use a debit card. On a cup of coffee transaction like above, the retail business is most likely losing money on the debit transaction. They cannot continue to do this and stay in business. Something had to change.

The retail business owners successfully pushed through Congress a limitation on the swipe fee reducing it to $0.12. This obviously made the retail business owners very happy, but not the Banks and Credit Card companies. They fired up their lobbying machine and went to work on the Obama Administration.

Today, the Federal Reserve is instituting some kind of special rule allowing the Banks and Credit Card companies the right to charge up to $0.24 for a swipe fee. Keep in mind, legislation was just passed making the maximum fee $0.12. Who cares about the law these days? Obviously, the Obama Administration does not care about it. The Banks and Credit Card companies obviously lobbied the Obama Administration for some relief to this legislation. Does it really surprise anyone to know that the Banks and Credit Card companies have pulled a fast one on the retail small business owners?

Why are we Americans allowing this to continue? These Banks are responsible for the recession that we are in. They are responsible for the federal funds rate being little or nothing so they can borrow free money to shore up their balance sheets for the mistakes that they made. Of course, all this is at the expense of the American public who are earning 0.01% on their money. Now, the retail small business person is getting the shaft on swipe fees, even after getting a law passed in their favor!

The Banks get what they want whenever they want and it is blatantly apparent that average Americans and retail small business owners are handed the bill.

This next election cycle is more important than ever. Do not assume that everyone will show up at the polls and vote the way you would have. You have to show up and vote. Otherwise, more injustice will continue at your expense.

Rising Interest Rates & Its Effect on Fixed Income Investments

How long have we been listening to pundits on television tell us that interest rates are going up? One pundit on Fox Business actually said today, "you would be an idiot to buy bonds right now." This guy is the actual idiot in my opinion. He is broad brushing all of fixed income as being bad. As is true of most television pundits, he is flat out misguided.

Let's think about the possible rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve for a moment. What is the main reason for them to raise interest rates? Historically, it has been to keep inflation in check. Well what has to happen for there to be inflation? Wages have to go up and the economy has to be expanding. My question to you is are we in the kind of economic environment where the economy is growing at a strong pace, personal incomes are rising and prices are also rising. Well, right now, only one out of three of these is happening, albeit modestly. This of course would be inflation.

In reality, we really have low inflation right now with some spikes like in energy and food. These two economic sectors are generally highly sensitive and volatile and usually spike up, then pull back. This is exactly what has happened. So, as of today, I would say that we had a short term spike in inflation, but it does not appear to be a strong upward trend.

Even assuming you believe the White House's take on the economy which I personally believe is way to optimistic, we still have horrible problems with housing and unemployment. The strength of this economy is not going to do much of anything without drastic action. The Democrats will lie and spin like they always do and the Republicans will pretend that they do not spend taxpayer dollars like drunken sailors. Both political parties are a train wreck in my opinion and the future is bleak for any meaningful change for at least until the next election.

A case in point is to look at both parties budget plans for the next 10 years. The President's plan expects to spend $27 trillion over the next 10 years. The Republicans expect to spend $26 trillion with Representative Paul Ryan's budget. In the grand scheme of things, that's not much of a difference over a ten year period.

So, when you think about interest rates rising, they typically rise faster in a strong economy. Are we there yet? Nope. High unemployment, a huge amount of housing inventory and little inflation are not the cornerstones of a scenario where interest rates are going to go up in a hurry. When they do go up, it is more likely to be a gradual increase and not necessarily a shock to the markets.

When a gradual raising of interest rates happen, it has the most effect on short term interest rates and less effect on long term rates. With a caveat, preferred stocks and high yield bonds typically pay the largest price when interest rates go up. Believe it or not, municipal bonds typically are not affected like high yield bonds are for example. The dividends tend to offset the increase in rates.

Do you really and I mean really think the Federal Reserve Bank is going to raise interest rates more than 1% any time soon? Forget about the idiot people that you see on television. Think for yourself.

Personally, I do not see interest rates going up a full 1% for probably at least one year or more. The only thing that would change my mind would be if Congress and the President eliminated the IRS, instituted a flat tax of less than 20% and lower the corporate income tax to 25%. The likelihood of all that happening in the next 12 months is slim to none. Therefore, I would not worry about interest rates going up more than 1% in the next 12 months.

Let's check back in 12 months and see if I was correct, shall we?

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's Top 10 Comments

Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke met with the media today and answered several questions. The main points of his speech and responses were the following:

1. He believes that oil and commodity price inflation that we are currently experiencing is "transitory." In other words, he expects it to peak and turn around and settle back down.
2. He said that the FOMC has a dual mandate. One is to promote economic growth and the other is to keep inflation low.
3. He reiterated that he was not as concerned with short term inflation as he was with medium term and longer term inflation.
4. He said basically that when conditions warrant, he fully expects to act to keep inflation in check by raising interest rates.
5. Further, he did not believe the impact of the Federal Reserve stopping their Quantitative Easing (QE2) strategy of buying long term securities from the market would have much of an impact on the financial markets. His reasoning was that the fact that they are ending QE2 is well known and generally already factored into the financial markets.
6. He felt that the efforts that have been undertaken to date since the crisis began, have had a positive effect on the unemployment rate decline. However, he noted that the Federal Reserve is not the be all and end all to fixing unemployment.
7. He further stated that the policy of the Fed was for a strong dollar and a strong U.S. economy which he believes is good for the world economy.
8. Chairman Bernanke expressed his support for our leaders in Congress and the President's Administration to work together and get our fiscal debt under control in the long term. He said it was a long term problem and it will take cooperation from both groups to achieve consensus.
9. There were other issues discussed such as how the Japanese tragedy might affect our economy and the current problems in the Middle East and North Africa. He assured us that the Fed was on top of these issues and in discussions with other leaders.
10. He said that although S&P putting U.S. Government debt on Negative Credit Watch was indeed historic, he felt it was not a surprise. He again reiterated the need at some point to get this debt problem under control and he mentioned that it was unsustainable.

I think Chairman Ben Bernanke did a good job with this historic press conference today. However, I am not certain that he truly knows what will happen when QE2 is stopped. He did say that they would reinvest maturing securities into new securities. This means that effectively, the $600 Billion that they have put on the Fed balance sheet would stay at $600 Billion. When they see the economic recovery that they are anticipating, then they will slowly allow maturing securities to fall off the Fed balance sheet. So, his view is that they will still be buying long term securities, but only when the ones currently in their portfolio mature. Therefore, I believe this is why he holds the view that any market impact after QE2 ends will not be a major shock to the market. The truth is that this is an educated guess on his part, since we have never had a QE2 like this one before. Let's hope he is right. I suspect we will see a blimp up in June when QE2 expires, but when the short speculators do not get want they want right away, they usually capitulate fairly quickly.

The Fed was able to do something similar to what they are doing today back in the decade of the 1940's. They can keep interest rates low for an extended period of time. I think we are good until at least the 4th quarter of this year on the discount rate.

Almost all the bullets in the Fed's gun have been used. We are still creeping along with this recovery. I reason that tax reform is the biggest thing that should be done to help this economy grow at a faster pace. However, it does not appear that this will happen as long as President Obama is in office. He is more intent on raising taxes. One thing is for sure, putting our faith in the politicians in Washington D.C. is a futile effort. We the people have to create the new jobs and grow this economy in spite of what the people in Washington D.C. do "for us".

A Lesson About Stepping Up in the Clutch

If you were to listen to the investment pundits on television, then they would tell you that there is going to be runaway inflation. They all say the same thing. The Federal Reserve is printing money like it is going out of style so, as a result, you can expect runaway inflation.Well, I have news for you. Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Board is not going to let inflation get anywhere near a runaway train. I think they will succeed in keeping interest rates low for an extended period of time.

I read a great article from Scott Minerd, the Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Partners, LLC. the article was entitled, 'The Urban Legend of the Bond Bubble.' In his view, we are in for more of a period like the 1940's. This was a period when the 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond averaged a paltry yield of under 2.00% for the entire decade of the 1940's. He believes that we are in a similar situation today. I tend to agree.

Think about the fact that the Great Depression took a long and I mean long time to recover. They tried everything to get the economy moving. It took a World War to put people back to work. After all, the real problem of the Great Depression was a lack of jobs. Which reminds me of the situation today. It is a similar lack of jobs.

Ponder, if you will that in order to create jobs, you have to incentivize the private sector of the economy with access to capital to grow, low interest rates and low taxes. Lest we not forget we need someone willing to buy what we are selling, also. This was the same problem created by the Great Depression.

I will certainly agree that we are able to recover much more quickly from the Great Recession than they did after the Great Depression. Our country is much more technologically advanced and productive today. However, I think we will see the yield on the 10 year U.S. Treasury move closer to 2.00% than 3.00%.

One thing that I have learned over the years is that the smartest guys in the room are not the smartest guys in the room. They are just winging it. Sad, but true. They are just better at winging it than most people.

Let me tell you a baseball story involving yours truly that happened several years ago. I played in the Men's Senior Baseball League World Series in Phoenix, Arizona one year and our first game was against the defending World Series Champions. You have never seen the male ego in hyper drive unless you see this event. This World Series Champion team heralded from the great city of Chicago. They had the best players that Chicago had to offer on this team. They had several ex-Major League players and most all the others had played in the Minor Leagues or had stellar college baseball careers.

Our team was a team primarily from Central Arkansas. We had one guy who played AAA and that was about it. The rest of us were just a bunch of country boys who liked to play baseball. Yet, here we were in the first game of the World Series against the defending champions. These guys were shuttling players in and out between innings. They had about 25 players with them and I think we had about 14 on our team. Intimidation was in the air. You could feel it. They were dead set on repeating as World Series Champions. You could tell by the way they were acting. They were confident.

In the fifth inning, they were winning 3 to 1. Us poor old Arkansas guys managed to get the bases loaded, then it was my turn to bat. Chicago called time out and brought in ex-Major Leaguer Tom Gorman to pitch, a former Minnesota Twin. His catcher was Bart Zeller who played with the Chicago Cubs in his career. Then there was me, waiting on the on deck circle for my opportunity at the plate. There was no disputing what my teammates expected me to do for the team. They obviously wanted me to get a hit and knock in some runs. At the same time, Chicago's team had great confidence in shutting this inning down by bringing in the pitching ace Tom Gorman. This guy was blowing some serious gas. He was throwing low nineties easy. Somebody was going to win this battle and somebody was going to lose. The odds favored Chicago by a country mile.

I was watching him warm up and he appeared to have two pitches. A slider which he was not able to get over during warmups and a fastball that was buddy you better believe it, fast.

This is a point in your life where you say, "Am I going to step up or am I going to let this intimidate me?" The first pitch was a slider in the dirt. I could see by the look on Tom Gorman's face that he didn't have confidence in that pitch, so I figured he would come with the fastball and try to blow it past me. I guessed right. I hit an opposite field grand slam off of him and we went ahead 5 to 3. You would not believe how demoralized those Chicago guys were after that grand slam. They just could not believe that a guy like me, who only played baseball as a kid up to age 15, could hit a grand slam off their ace. Ever hear that baseball is 90% mental and 10% ability? It's true, although I can hang with the best of them in baseball ability.

We went on to win the game and some of the guys on my team were telling me for days afterwards that "that ball is still going!" Chicago never recovered the rest of the week. They failed to repeat as World Series Champions. Although we did not win the World Series, it was certainly a gratifying experience to beat the World Series Champions and to do it in such a dramatic way.

Which brings me back to my point. A lot of times when I watch some of my peers on television giving advice, I sit back and notice that these guys are just winging it. They are not the smartest guys in the room. Yet, a lot of people put a ton of credence into what they say. My advice would be to be careful about listening to these advisors.

I just smile to myself knowing that I can play with the big leaguers, come through in the clutch and I am probably a little smarter than they will ever know.